# PMP Exam Question 136

## Simulation Technique :

While preparing an influence diagram for your project, you used probability distribution to represent an uncertain element in the diagram. Which simulation technique would you use to evaluate and indicate the elements with the greatest influence?

A. Benchmarking.
B. Monte Carlo analysis.
D. Trend analysis.

### 2 responses on "PMP Exam Question 136"

1. PMP® Solution 136.

X A. Benchmarking involves comparing actual or planned products, processes, and practices to those of comparable organizations to identify best practices, generate ideas for improvement, and provide a basis for measuring performance. The organizations compared during benchmarking can be internal or external.

X C. One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram, which presents the calculated correlation coefficient for each element of the quantitative risk analysis model that can influence the project outcome. This can include individual project risks, project activities with high degrees of variability, or specific sources of ambiguity. Items are ordered by descending strength of correlation, giving the typical tornado appearance.

X. D Trend Analysis is an analytical technique that uses mathematical models to forecast future outcomes based on historical results.

Influence diagrams are graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty. An influence diagram represents a project or situation within the project as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences, together with the relationships and effects between them. Where an element in the influence diagram is uncertain as a result of the existence of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty, this can be represented in the influence diagram using ranges or probability distributions. The influence diagram is then evaluated using a simulation technique, such as Monte Carlo analysis, to indicate which elements have the greatest influence on key outcomes. Therefore, right answer is B. [PMBOK 6th edition, Page 436] [Project Risk Management]

Cheers

2. B. Monte Carlo analysis